Tesla's value vs the world auto (approx).  If we trade present value of future earnings, does Tesla's valuation - which has been at times greater than combined auto industry  - imply 1 in every 2 cars sold in the future will be a TSLA. Is there more to Tesla's composition?

Recent, dramatic declines in sales worldwide and in domestic US has raised investor alarms and put even more scrutiny on its energy storage and other businesses.  

Tesla's non-automotive and non-EV businesses are often overshadowed by its core electric vehicle operations, but they play a growing role in the company's long-term strategy. Here's a summary of those segments and their estimated revenue contributions as of the latest available data (2024 estimates):

Energy Generation and Storage (Tesla Energy)

• Includes: Solar panels, Solar Roof, Powerwall (home battery), Powerpack and Megapack (commercial/utility-scale batteries).

• Revenue (2024): ~$6–7 billion

• Share of Total Revenue: ~6–8%

• Notes: Tesla Energy is becoming increasingly significant, particularly Megapack deployments which cater to grid-scale energy storage. Tesla aims for this to eventually rival its automotive business in size though it remains far smaller for now.

Autonomous Driving / Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software

• Includes: FSD software package sold as an upgrade or subscription.

• Revenue (2024): ~$1–2 billion (mostly recognized over time due to accounting rules)

• Share of Total Revenue: ~1–2% (with large deferred revenue on balance sheet)

• Notes: FSD is positioned as a high-margin software product. As adoption increases or robotaxi services launch (still speculative) - this could grow substantially.

Services and Other

• Includes: Vehicle servicing, Supercharger network (some third-party use now allowed), used vehicle sales, merchandise, and insurance.

• Revenue (2024): ~$8–9 billion

• Share of Total Revenue: ~8–10%

• Notes: This is a broad category. Tesla insurance is offered in select U.S. states with potential for expansion. Supercharging revenue may increase as it opens the network to other EV brands.

AI/Dojo and Robotics (Emerging)

• Includes: Dojo supercomputer (for AI training), Optimus humanoid robot.

• Revenue (2024): Minimal, speculative (<$100M)

• Share of Total Revenue: <1%

• Notes: These are long-term bets. While revenue is negligible now, Tesla claims they could be multi-trillion-dollar markets in the future.

Total Non-Auto Revenue (2024):

~$15–18 billion, representing ~15–20% of total revenue (Tesla’s total revenue for 2024 est. ~$90–100 billion).